Catch-2022

The 2018 midterms are over, which means machinations over the 2020 Presidential election will commence in approximately six minutes. Allow me to simplify things for you:

Anyone who actively seeks out the job in the next decade automatically disqualifies themselves.

Perhaps you recall the “catch” referred to in the title of “Catch-22” – that is, getting pulled off combat flight duty requires demonstrating insanity, but showing that you’re insane is, in fact, a perfectly sane thing to do if you want to get out of flying hazardous missions, so therefore you are certified to fly! The upshot is that anyone who volunteers to fly is, by definition, insane.

Any Presidential nominees in the 2020s definitely fall into the latter category. The eventual winner is doomed to a record of ignominy on the fiscal and international fronts which shall outweigh any other perceived achievements. No matter who is in office, there will be cutbacks, tax hikes – and casualties. Who would want that on his or her record?

My high level of certainty can be explained in four charts.

Meanwhile, as our entitlement costs reach new heights between 2020 and 2030, a comparison of the next two charts – only superficially unrelated to the first two – will surely make you feel warm and fuzzy.

While we commission five ships a year to refresh our rapidly aging fleet, look what’s up in a rather acquisitive country whose name rhymes with, uh, nothin’ could be finah…

These trends show no sign of abating.

The financial exhibits above directly impact our ability to respond to the final chart. This is not a secret from potential opponents abroad, who will find the 2020s their moment of maximum advantage. Yes, it’s true that China will get old before it gets rich; although it will always be very large, its extremely poor demographic situation means that before long its leading industry will be elder care. But there is a window to change the global situation more to China’s liking, and that window is the 2020s. They see our inability to handle our own house and they will move – somehow – to take advantage of this unique period. The groundwork is being laid now.

The one question any Presidential candidate must be asked is “Are you prepared to face the American people and ask it to both take casualties and inflict human carnage unseen since the Truman Administration? Also, while raising taxes and cutting public services?”

Serious questions.

We lack serious leaders.

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